It’s decision time: the final days of September 2024 Intake and the Australia factor
The industry is trailing by exactly three weeks compared to this time last year, according to Enroly real-time data, and while that might initially seem concerning, it could actually be seen as a good thing. This delay presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for universities as they navigate the recruitment landscape for the September 2024 intake.
With the right approach, there’s still an opportunity for student recruitment. The key is identifying the tactics that will best capture this potential. There are three common tactics to consider:
- Extend your start date: This approach allows more time to convert and onboard students, taking advantage of the extended recruitment window.
- Close the intake on time: This option focuses on managing deferrals, retention, and gearing up for January recruitment and conversion activities.
- Hybrid approach: A blend of the first two options, this strategy involves extending the start date where possible while also preparing for the next recruitment cycle.
Disclaimer: Institutional alignment is critical for whichever strategy you choose. Ensure that academics, student services, and all key stakeholders are informed and prepared. Misalignment can lead to internal friction, confusion, and disruption of the student/agent experience. Extensions will impact new student experience, academic success and results, so getting that balance right is important.
Why do we think we’re three weeks behind?
I want to dive into the data to better explain how we’re seeing the current landscape.The graph below is tracking unique student activity on CAS Shield during the 2023 intake period, compared with the current 2024 data.
Graph 1: 2023 Daily unique student user data
Graph 2: 2024 Daily unique student user data
In 2023, the peak of daily unique student users was reached on 1st August, with over 90,000 unique users. This marked the height of recruitment activity before it began to taper off as universities shifted focus towards deferrals, withdrawals, and the January intake.
In 2024, however, the peak didn’t occur until 20th August, a full three weeks later than last year. This delay means that while the sector is behind schedule, there could still be a significant window of opportunity.
In 2023, there were seven weeks of genuine student conversion activity following the peak leading up to the week of 18th September. If we apply the same timeline this year that would extend conversion activities until the week of 8th October. That is almost certainly too late to extend, but it doesn’t mean you should ignore the opportunity.
Tactical considerations for Universities
While an October closing week might seem late for most institutions, this year is far from typical. The demand for international students, the revenue they generate, and the ongoing funding crisis in higher education might necessitate a more flexible and deliberate and deliberate approach to late starts and deferral management.
Without complicating the maths, the data shows there are seven weeks of work to do and only four weeks until the likely latest start date.
So, what are your options:
- Evaluate deferral and January start options: Understand what is feasible at both the institutional and course levels to manage deferrals and maximise your January intake opportunities.
- Accelerate conversion efforts: Time is of the essence. Universities need to work smarter, faster, and harder to convert the opportunities they have.
- Communicate clearly with agents and students: Transparency is critical. Ensure that all stakeholders are informed about timelines and any potential changes.
The impact of Australia’s international student cap
Considering the broader context, it’s impossible to ignore the developments in Australia. The likely cap on international student enrolments at 270,000 - potentially a 50% reduction - with significant ripple effects.
Here’s what I anticipate:
- Rush to beat the cap: We’ll likely see a surge of students trying to enrol before the cap takes effect, targeting the January 2025 intake.
- Impact on UK recruitment: This rush could temporarily slow the rebound in UK recruitment that we’ve been forecasting for January 2025.
- Long-term UK benefits: Once Australia’s cap is in place, we can expect a renewed demand for UK universities in the September 2025 intake.
- UK market stability: While the UK government is unlikely to make any drastic policy changes in the next 12 months, the funding crisis remains a concern. However, this relative stability should give UK universities a boost in confidence and optimism.
Conclusion: A positive outlook for UK Universities
Despite the challenges, the developments in Australia could ultimately benefit UK universities by increasing demand from international students. This potential influx comes at a crucial time, offering growth opportunities amid funding constraints and recruitment pressures.
To capitalise on this, universities must remain agile and focused. Decisive action is essential whether you choose to extend start dates, manage deferrals, or intensify January recruitment efforts. Clear communication with agents and students and a data-driven approach will be key to your success.
